Probability state sequence method for reliability analysis of wind farms considering wake effect

Reliability analysis of wind farms, especially when considering wake effect, has been a challenge due to the intermittency of wind energy. This paper proposes a probability state sequence method which utilizes the independent probability distribution of each wind turbine to come up with the integration of total output states of the wind farm and the derivation of reliability indices. When wake effect is considered, the method remains unchanged comparing to normal cases but the only modification needed is on the representing states for the sum sequence. By using the probability state sequence method, the reliability analysis can have higher computational efficiency and can be subject to easy change of parameters. A studied case has been shown to demonstrate the use and effectiveness of the method.