Reliability analysis of grid concepts

Traditional techniques that evaluate the reliability of electrical grids lack the capability of providing an objective basis to assess the reliability of industrial grids. Therefore, there is an increasing demand towards probabilistic techniques that are able to create a more solid basis regarding future grid investments and to justify implementation decisions made in the grid. In this paper, the probabilistic method of the discrete absorbing Markov chain is proposed together with the matrix multiplication method to gain insight in both the reliability and the average cost of production loss due to faults in an industrial electrical grid. The merits of this technique are illustrated through two case studies in which parts of the electrical grid of the chemical production site of BASF Antwerp are simulated. From these case studies, both the weakest parts of the grid are identified as well as the average cost of production loss after one year.