Prediction of regulation reserve requirements in california ISO balancing authority area based on BAAL

This paper presents new methodologies developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to estimate regulation capacity requirements in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) balancing authority area (BAA). Two approaches have been developed: (1) an approach based on statistical analysis of actual historical area control error (ACE) and regulation data and (2) an approach based on balancing authority ACE limit control performance standard. The approaches predict regulation reserve requirements on a day-ahead basis including upward and downward requirements, for each operating hour of a day. California ISO data has been used to test the performance of the proposed algorithms. Results show that the software tool developed allows saving up to 30% on the regulation procurements cost¹.