Title :
A stepwise regression method for forecasting net interchange schedule
Author :
Vlachopoulou, Maria ; Ferryman, T. ; Ning Zhou ; Jianzhong Tong
Author_Institution :
Pacific Northwest Nat. Lab., Richland, WA, USA
Abstract :
The net interchange schedule (NIS) is the sum of the transactions (MW) between an Independent System Operator (ISO)/ Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the submitted NIS can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper presents a stepwise regression method for forecasting NIS. The stepwise regression method uses significance analysis to identify the most influential explanatory variables. Identifying the most influential explanatory variables can reduce model order and lead to better and faster prognostics. The performance of the stepwise regression method is evaluated using the field measurement data from PJM Interconnection (RTO).
Keywords :
ISO standards; load forecasting; power grids; power system identification; power system interconnection; power system measurement; regression analysis; scheduling; ISO; Independent System Operator; NIS; PJM Interconnection; RTO; Regional Transmission Organization; field measurement data; forecasting net interchange scheduling; grid operation efficiency; model order reduction; power system identification; prognostics; stepwise regression method; Computational modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Heating; Market research; Power systems; Predictive models; explanatory variables; net interchange schedule; power grid operations; statistical significance; stepwise regression;
Conference_Titel :
Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PES), 2013 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Vancouver, BC
DOI :
10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672763
