Operation risk assessment of wind farm integrated system influenced by weather conditions

The component outage models in operation risk assessment should reflect not only system operation information but also the weather conditions. A composite outage model combining the weather conditioned time-varying model and overload conditioned outage model is built to simulate transmission line failure rates. This paper focuses on the weather impact on system risk as weather conditions influence both the component outage probability and the wind farm output. Time-varying and space-varying weather conditions, forecasted hourly load and wind farm output, day-ahead unit commitment are combined to calculate operation risk indices both in a system layer and in a component layer. Monte Carlo simulation method is used for state selection and optimal power flow is used for calculating optimal load curtailment. Test in IEEE-RTS 79 system with a large-scale wind farm integration shows the effect of the region and time of abnormal weather on system. The most possible lines and buses where overload and load curtailment will occur are analyzed which could help decision making for operators.