Title :
Empirical Forecasting of HF-Radar Velocity Using Genetic Algorithms
Author :
Orfila, Alejandro ; Molcard, Anne ; Sayol, Juan M. ; Marmain, Julien ; Bellomo, Lucio ; Quentin, Celine ; Barbin, Yves
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Marine Technol. & Operational Oceanogr., UIB, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Abstract :
We present a coastal ocean current forecasting system using exclusively past observations of a high-frequency radar (HF-Radar). The forecast is made by developing a new approach based on physical and mathematical results of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory that allows to obtain a predictive equation for the currents. Using radial velocities from two HF-Radar stations, the spatiotemporal variability of the fields is first decomposed using the empirical orthogonal functions. The amplitudes of the most relevant modes representing their temporal evolution are then approximated with functions obtained through a genetic algorithm. These functions will be then combined to obtain the hourly currents at the area for the next 36 h. The results indicate that after 4 h and for a horizon of 24 h, the computed predictions provide more accurate current fields than the latest available field (i.e., persistent field).
Keywords :
genetic algorithms; marine radar; mathematical analysis; nonlinear dynamical systems; oceanographic equipment; oceanographic techniques; HF-radar velocity forecasting; coastal ocean current forecasting system; empirical orthogonal function; genetic algorithm; high-frequency radar; mathematical analysis; nonlinear dynamical system theory; predictive equation; temporal evolution; time 24 hour; time 36 h; time 4 h; Equations; Forecasting; Genetic algorithms; Radar; Sea measurements; Sea surface; Empirical modeling; high-frequency radar (HF-Radar); operational oceanography;
Journal_Title :
Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TGRS.2014.2366294