Graph-based algorithms for comparison and prediction of household-level energy use profiles

We present an efficient graph-based algorithm for quantifying the similarity of household-level energy use profiles, using a notion of similarity that allows for small time-shifts when comparing profiles. Experimental results on a real smart meter data set demonstrate that in cases of practical interest our technique is far faster than the existing method for computing the same similarity measure. Having a fast algorithm for measuring profile similarity improves the efficiency of tasks such as clustering of customers and cross-validation of forecasting methods using historical data. Furthermore, we apply a generalisation of our algorithm to produce substantially better household-level energy use forecasts from historical smart meter data.