Wind power ramp forecasting for stochastic unit commitment in Smart Grid environment

The rapid increase in the wind power penetration into power system introduces more variability and uncertainty in existing conventional power system. These factors are the key challenges to integrate large amounts of wind generation into future smart grid. Wind power ramp forecasting provides the additional dimensionality in wind power forecasting and risk involved in operations at times of high variability in terms of ramp ups and ramp downs. This paper addresses the wind ramp rates considering wind effects along with demand profile. The analysis is applied to one of the high wind penetrating states in India to understand the effect of wind power ramp forecasting. The presented analysis can be used for scheduling/dispatch of conventional generation units using stochastic unit commitment programs.