Forecast of civil aviation freight volume using unbiased grey-fuzzy-Markov chain method

This paper presented an unbiased grey-Markov chain method to forecast civil aviation freight volume. It combines the unbiased grey system theory and fuzzy classification. When forecasting freight volumes, uncertainty factors often cause deviation in estimations derived from traditional grey model. Therefor fuzzy classification is a good tool to integrate with unbiased grey analysis to reduce the residual resulted from these uncertain factors. This method can take advantage of the prediction power of conventional Grey-Markov forecasting method and simultaneously eliminate grey bias and improve anti-jamming performance. Finally, this method is applied in forecasting the Chinese civil aviation fright volume. Our experimental result shows that the model not only discovers the trend of the freight volumes but also overcomes the random fluctuation of data affecting precision.