Title :
Using fractional GM(1,1) model to predict maintenance cost of weapon system
Author :
Fang Shili ; Wu Lifeng ; Yu Liang ; Fang Zhigeng
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
In order to improve the prediction performance for maintenance cost of weapon system, grey system model with the fractional order accumulation (FGM(1,1)) is used to predict the maintenance cost of weapon system with small sample. FGM(1,1) yielded the lower MAPE in the in-sample model and the much lower MAPE in the out-of-sample model, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict the memory process. FGM(1,1) can predict the maintenance cost of other weapon system.
Keywords :
grey systems; maintenance engineering; weapons; FGM(1,1) model; MAPE; fractional GM(1,1) model; fractional order accumulation; grey system model; in-sample model; mean absolute percentage error; memory process prediction performance improvement; out-of-sample model; weapon system maintenance cost prediction; Analytical models; Atmospheric modeling; Educational institutions; Fitting; Maintenance engineering; Predictive models; Weapons; 1) model; GM(1; maintenance cost; weapon system;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2013 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Macao
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-5247-5
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2013.6714760
