A Hierarchical Approach to Study Water Diversion Conflicts in China

Water diversion conflicts in China are studied using a hierarchical approach to obtain the strategic resolutions. To address the large population and uneven water distribution in China, the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is being constructed to transfer water from the Yangtze River Basin to the North China Plain where there is a severe water shortage. As the eastern route of the project nears completion, conflicts have arisen along the central and western routes where the Chinese Central Government has to decide how to proceed. To obtain possible resolutions to these conflicts, a hierarchical approach is adopted by which conflicts along the two routes are analyzed separately using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). The possible outcomes determined indicate that the central project can be fully initiated in spite of opposition, while the western route cannot be resumed without the agreement of the neighboring countries. These findings from the two separate conflicts are compared to those obtained when the two disputes are investigated as one larger conflict.