Short term forecast of the evaporation duct for the West Pacific Ocean

Evaporation duct, as an important component of atmosphere duct, has a strong impact on near-surface radar propagation. Short term forecast of evaporation duct is significant to the application of ship borne radar and communication systems. This paper presented a short term forecast method of evaporation duct height (EDH) based on Global Forecast System (GFS) products and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) evaporation duct model. West Pacific Ocean was chosen as the area of study and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) FNL reanalysis data were used to test the forecast accuracy. The results showed that the EDH average forecast error was below 2m within 24 hour in most parts of West Pacific Ocean and increased during the period studied. The EDH forecast accuracy was high within 24 hour and decreased as time passed. The proposed method worked well in short term forecast of evaporation duct for the West Pacific Ocean.