Thin film technology shipment and deployment, 1982 through 2012 and future prospects to 2016

This paper will provide detail on thin film manufacturing, price and application deployment from 1982, when a-Si entered commercial deployment to 2012. Regional shifts in thin film manufacturing will be explored along with aspects and attributes of thin film technologies in competition with crystalline technologies. Included will be brief discussion of the competitive, or, non-competitive attributes of current technology manufacturers as well as those not currently competing. This history will provide a basis for the development of three forecast scenarios to 2017. Forecast assumptions include the low incentive environment in which the photovoltaic industry is currently operating, tender based PPAs and tariffs, macroeconomic factors such as GDP, and effect on thin film technologies of a continued low pricing environment.