Power system probabilistic production simulation containing large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power

Traditional probabilistic production simulation method generally use the load duration curve, which is difficult to deal with the issue of intermittent renewable energy power generation. This paper proposed a new methodology for probabilistic production simulation of power system, which could consider the time correlation between the wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power and the load. In the method, the effective capacity distribution cumulant method, which is based on time-series load, was applied, and a simplified method to calculate the Beta distribution parameter of the PV output was put forward. Not only the time correlation between the wind power, PV power and the load, but also the random fluctuation of the PV output were considered. It could be used to calculate the reliability indices under the corresponding load level of different periods. The effectiveness of the method was verified based on the irradiance and unit data of a virtual test system.