Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. & Manage., Beijing Univ. of Chem. Technol., Beijing, China
Abstract :
In order to improve the forecasting accuracy for clean energy consumption with inherently high complexity, a hybrid learning paradigm integrating genetic algorithm (GA) and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR), i.e., GA-LSSVR model, is formulated in this study. In this learning paradigm, LSSVR, as a powerful artificial intelligence tool, is employed to forecast clean energy consumption, furthermore, GA is employed to determine the parameters in LSSVR. Taking the Chinese hydropower energy as sample, empirical results indicate that the GA-LSSVR model significantly outperforms other benchmark models, including Artificial neural network (ANN), Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and a set of hybrid models based on LSSVR and other searching methods (e.g., particle swarm optimization (PSO) and simulated annealing (SA)), in both level prediction accuracy and directional forecasting. The GA-LSSVR learning paradigm can be extended as an effective prediction technique for other complex data.
Keywords :
artificial intelligence; autoregressive moving average processes; energy consumption; genetic algorithms; hydroelectric power; neural nets; particle swarm optimisation; regression analysis; simulated annealing; support vector machines; ANN; ARIMA; Chinese hydropower energy; GA-LSSVR hybrid learning paradigm; GA-LSSVR learning paradigm; GA-LSSVR model; LSSVR parameter determination; PSO; SA; artificial neural network; autoregressive integrated moving average; benchmark model; clean energy consumption forecasting accuracy; complex data effective prediction technique; forecast clean energy consumption; hybrid learning paradigm integrating genetic algorithm; hybrid model set; least square support vector regression; level prediction accuracy; level prediction directional forecasting; particle swarm optimization; powerful artificial intelligence tool; searching method; simulated annealing; Artificial neural networks; Biological system modeling; Energy consumption; Forecasting; Genetic algorithms; Predictive models; Support vector machines; Artificial intelligence; Clean energy consumption forecast; Genetic algorithm; Hybrid model; Least squares support vector regression;