Modeling Multiple Locations Defence and Attack Dynamic Bayesian Decision Game

Traditional game theory for modeling strategies of attacker and defender are static or discrete, such models do not adequately address real world situation in which the attackers´ investments or strategies are dynamic, so do the defenders´. By contrast, risk analysis generally neglects the fact that terrorists are intelligent and adaptive, and can observe our defenses and adapt their strategies accordingly. Considering both aspects of real world circumstances, with the motivation that adequately reflect both the adaptive nature of terrorist threats and the structures of the systems to be defended, this paper presents a new model based on states space dynamic changing, Bayesian decision making, risk states continuous evolution and intelligence information collection.