Towards an accurate reliability, availability and maintainability analysis approach for satellite systems based on probabilistic model checking

From navigation to telecommunication, and from weather forecasting to military, or entertainment services-satellites play a major role in our daily lives. Satellites in the Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and geostationary orbit have a life span of 10 years or more. Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) analysis of a satellite system is a crucial part at their design phase to ensure the highest availability and optimized reliability. This paper shows the formal modeling and verification of RAM related properties of a satellite system. In a previously reported approach, time between possible failures and time between repairs are assumed to follow an exponential distribution, which does not represent a realistic scenario. In contrast, in our work, discrete time delays in the classical Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) are approximated using the Erlang distribution. This is done by approximating nonexponential holding time with several intermediate states based on a phase type distribution. The RAM properties are then verified using the PRISM model checker. We present and compare modeling results with those obtained with a previously reported approach that demonstrate an improved modeling accuracy.