Quantitative mission risk assessment for space: Providing an objective picture for decision-makers

Making decisions regarding risk is an inherently subjective activity, but it should be based on objective analysis. However, the qualitative risk assessment approaches that are widely used in the aerospace industry can easily lead to subjective judgments creeping into the analysis. This paper describes a quantitative risk assessment approach that allows decision-makers to consider and compare objective assessments of mission risks. Through the diagramming of risk scenarios, probabilistic risk assessment, and objective communication of the risk analysis, senior management can then make better-informed decisions. A “sanitized” case study of such a risk assessment for a satellite illustrates the approach.