Technological Transformation Investment Prediction of Primary Equipment of Substation Based on Assets Wall

Since power equipment accounts for a large proportion of the total assets of the power supply enterprise, its technological transformation cost has become an important factor affecting business results and cash flows. In this case, the centralized transformation resulted from the intensive commissioning may bring great financial pressure and reliability risks to relevant power companies, hence applying scientific forecasting to the technological transformation scale is of great practical significance. As we all know, the total technological transformation in a company equals to the sum of the total equipment technological transformation. According to the difference of each device from the others, this paper proposes a model of the asset wall projecting based on stochastic simulation. Taking the individual devices´ overall consistency and randomness into account, the practice turns out to improve the science, reasonableness and accuracy of prediction results in great extent.