Uncertainty evaluation of a Backward/Forward Load Flow algorithm for a MV smart grid

This paper presents the uncertainty evaluation of an innovative measurement algorithm for load flow analysis in MV distribution networks. The measurement procedure is based on Low Voltage (LV) load power measurements applied on a Backward/Forward (B/F) algorithm for the Load Flow (LF) resolution. Furthermore, in the procedure a three phase voltage measurement at the MV generating substation bus-bars is also considered. The accuracy analysis of the LF algorithm is performed in the case of a real load condition in the distribution grid of Ustica island, Italy. The analysis takes into account the uncertainty of the measurement instruments at the LV side of each secondary substation power transformer. In particular, the uncertainty of load power measurement and voltage measurement are considered. A Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the measurements uncertainties propagation on the LF algorithm output variables, i.e. the active and reactive power flow estimations. Moreover the compatibility is verified between the estimated and the measured power flows.