Using grey dynamic model to analysis the influencing factors of grain production in Heilongjiang province

The paper analysis influencing factors of grain production in Heilongjiang province, using the theory of gray system model. In Heilongjiang Province, the chemical fertilizer, the per unit area yield of grain and other agricultural technology and production input factors is the main influence factors in the current and future; secondly, the comprehensive influence of agricultural natural resources and social resources is an important factor, Then, there´s including the level of agricultural modernization and agricultural production support system will bring new influence to grain production. Therefore, it puts forward that Heilongjiang province stable grain production should pay attention to both short-term and long-term interests for the protection of the ecological environment; to reasonable use and conservation of resources for saving its; to improve the production input factor and output efficiency for improving the overall level of agricultural modernization; to stabilize prices of agricultural production input for improving food production support policies to play the farmer´s production enthusiasm, for maintain national food security.