The role of spatial correlations in Monte Carlo studies on power system

Author

Seguinot, Baptiste ; Zani, Alessandro

Author_Institution

RTE, Versailles, France

fYear

2015

fDate

June 29 2015-July 2 2015

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

This paper presents a method to generate new samples of the stochastic phenomena affecting the power system, notably the consumption, uncontrollable renewable generation and hydro inflows. The method aims at reproducing characteristics of the time series observed in historical data: their seasonality, temporal correlation, marginal distribution and spatial correlations. It has been implemented into a Monte Carlo adequacy simulator. The sensitivity of some reliability indicators to spatial correlations is analysed for a French test case at the horizon 2030. It has been shown that the reliability of the system can be significantly overestimated and the assessment of the inter-zonal exchanges can be biased if spatial correlations are neglected.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; power system reliability; time series; Monte Carlo studies; hydro inflows; marginal distribution; power system; renewable generation; spatial correlations; temporal correlation; time series; Correlation; Load modeling; Mathematical model; Monte Carlo methods; Power systems; Stochastic processes; Time series analysis; Adequacy simulations; Monte Carlo methods; spatial correlations; time series generation;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

PowerTech, 2015 IEEE Eindhoven

Conference_Location

Eindhoven

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PTC.2015.7232392

Filename

7232392