Economics of distributed flexibilities for the grid considering local short-term uncertainties

This paper addresses the problem of activating distributed flexibilities to steer a MV feeder away from a voltage or current constraint that could justify reconductoring. It focuses in particular on selecting the best timing to make decision on activations, based on the expected economic impact of three promising solutions: dispatchable distributed generation, distributed energy storage, and direct load control. To this end, we propose models to i) consider uncertainties at the MV feeder level for three different forecast antecedences, ii) optimize distributed flexibilities activations according to a given risk policy, and iii) assess the economic impact of those activations. The approach is applied to two different test cases of MV feeder constraints using real measurements of load/generation. Results tend to show that distributed flexibilities should preferably be activated closest to real time. From this perspective, economic models used nowadays to assess the costs and benefits of distributed flexibility should be updated to include opportunity costs.