Abstract :
The purpose of this paper is to outline a model which can be used to predict the performance of HF skywave radio circuits in a nuclear environment. Despite a wealth of literature on the subject of signal absorption and attenuation, little has been discussed to date about prediction of performance levels in such an environment. The proposed prediction model for system performance is an empirical model that reflects observations of circuit degradation and, where applicable, degradation effects as predicted by theory. The effects of HF system parameter degradation are examined in terms of a natural, localized, ionospheric disturbance that is similar to that produced by a nuclear burst. While the mechanisms that produce natural and nuclear ionospheric disturbances are somewhat different, the end effects on the propagation parameters can be assumed to be the same in magnitude. The degradation parameters are defined within the context of statistical formats. Using these formats, the performance of HF radio circuits in an area of interest are predicted in terms of circuit reliability, expected degradation time, and performance levels.
