Short term localized load prediction

The development of a three hour load prediction model at Detroit Edison is described. All major electric utilities are required to maintain a certain level of integrity, especially during heat storm days. The predicted temperature and the anticipated load may require several operations including: circuit cutover, jumpering, and load transfer; installation of emergency equipment, like portable transformers; additional cooling to some major pieces of equipment; the shutoff of nonessential loads, e.g. air conditioning load, water heating load, etc.; and the adjustment of substation transformer regulators or line voltage regulators as necessary. Many of these operations require prior-knowledge of the system condition, especially loads at various local substations. An accurate short-term load prediction model can provide advance load information, which will help to assign priorities and sequence such operations. In order to perform the necessary remote and local operations including dispatching of the field crews, a three-hour advance notice is considered adequate. The author presents a method of predicting local load at a substation three hours in advance