A combined fuzzy-logic and physics-of-failure approach to reliability prediction

An original reliability prediction procedure is presented. The physics of failure accounts for the failure mechanisms involved (a lognormal distribution was presumed); the interactions (synergies) between the technology factors depending on the manufacturing techniques are considered. The basis of this methodology (called SYRP=synergetic reliability prediction) is the assessment of failure-risk coefficients (FRC), based on fuzzy logic, for the potential failure mechanisms induced at each manufacturing step. These FRC are corrected at the subsequent steps by considering the synergy of the manufacturing factors, At the end of the manufacturing process, final FRC are obtained for each potential failure mechanism; the parameters of the lognormal distribution are calculated with a simple algorithm. Experimental results for four lots of the same type of semiconductor devices, each lot being manufactured with a slightly different technology, were obtained. SYRP forecasts for these four lots agree well with accelerated life test results. This is a fairly good result, because SYRP was used early, at the design phase