A new approach to quantify reserve demand in systems with significant installed wind capacity

With wind power capacities increasing in many electricity systems across the world, operators are faced with new problems related to the uncertain nature of wind power. Foremost of these is the quantification and provision of system reserve. In this paper a new methodology is presented which quantifies the reserve needed on a system taking into account the uncertain nature of the wind power. Generator outage rates and load and wind power forecasts are taken into consideration when quantifying the amount of reserve needed. The reliability of the system is used as an objective measure to determine the effect of increasing wind power penetration. The methodology is applied to a model of the all Ireland electricity system, and results show that as wind power capacity increases, the system must increase the amount of reserve carried or face a measurable decrease in reliability.