Making sense of worst-performing feeders

A majority of states has taken steps to regulate the reliability of electricity service, and there is a current regulatory trend focusing on worst-performing feeders (WPFs). This paper performs a comprehensive assessment of worst-performing feeders at Midwest Energy by examining nine years of historical interruption data and validating statistical results with predictive modeling. The paper shows that historical data are able to reflect expected performance but are less able to reflect the risk of worse-than-expected performance. These results raise serious questions as to the usefulness of WPF lists in their present incarnation, and this paper provides recommendations on how utilities can better identify and manage poor-performing feeders.