Smart Meter Driven Segmentation: What Your Consumption Says About You

With the rollout of smart metering infrastructure at scale, demand-response (DR) programs may now be tailored based on users´ consumption patterns as mined from sensed data. For issuing DR events it is key to understand the inter-temporal consumption dynamics as to appropriately segment the user population. We propose to infer occupancy states from consumption time series data using a hidden Markov model framework. Occupancy is characterized in this model by 1) magnitude, 2) duration, and 3) variability. We show that users may be grouped according to their consumption patterns into groups that exhibit qualitatively different dynamics that may be exploited for program enrollment purposes. We investigate empirically the information that residential energy consumers´ temporal energy demand patterns characterized by these three dimensions may convey about their demographic, household, and appliance stock characteristics. Our analysis shows that temporal patterns in the user´s consumption data can predict with good accuracy certain user characteristics. We use this framework to argue that there is a large degree of individual predictability in user consumption at a population level.