DocumentCode :
80637
Title :
Understanding Early Indicators of Critical Transitions in Power Systems From Autocorrelation Functions
Author :
Ghanavati, Goodarz ; Hines, Paul D. H. ; Lakoba, T.I. ; Cotilla-Sanchez, Eduardo
Author_Institution :
Coll. ofEngineering & Math. Sci., Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
Volume :
61
Issue :
9
fYear :
2014
fDate :
Sept. 2014
Firstpage :
2747
Lastpage :
2760
Abstract :
Many dynamical systems, including power systems, recover from perturbations more slowly as they approach critical transitions - a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. If the system is stochastically forced, autocorrelation and variance in time-series data from the system often increase before the transition, potentially providing an early warning of coming danger. In some cases, these statistical patterns are sufficiently strong, and occur sufficiently far from the transition, that they can be used to predict the distance between the current operating state and the critical point. In other cases CSD comes too late to be a good indicator. In order to better understand the extent to which CSD can be used as an indicator of proximity to bifurcation in power systems, this paper derives autocorrelation functions for three small power system models, using the stochastic differential algebraic equations (SDAE) associated with each. The analytical results, along with numerical results from a larger system, show that, although CSD does occur in power systems, its signs sometimes appear only when the system is very close to transition. On the other hand, the variance in voltage magnitudes consistently shows up as a good early warning of voltage collapse.
Keywords :
differential algebraic equations; power system dynamic stability; stochastic processes; CSD; SDAE; autocorrelation functions; critical slowing down; critical transitions; power systems; stochastic differential algebraic equations; voltage collapse; Bifurcation; Correlation; Mathematical model; Noise; Power system stability; Stochastic processes; Autocorrelation function; bifurcation; critical slowing down; phasor measurement units; power system stability; stochastic differential equations;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers, IEEE Transactions on
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
1549-8328
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/TCSI.2014.2332246
Filename :
6848858
Link To Document :
بازگشت