Buffer Overflow Probability of TCP Flows During Mobile Handovers

Forwarding of user data is suspended for a short time at mobile handovers, but arriving packets are still buffered in the network. The resulting sudden peak in utilization may overflow the buffer, and the subsequent bursty packet loss will cause TCP connections to significantly degrade their throughput. We derive an analytical model for buffer overflow probability calculation, given the congestion window increase function and network parameters. Numeric results for current TCP variants and realistic network parameters show that congestion loss occurs with significant probability, even for very large buffer settings.