Good breeding - How will future power needs be provided? [Guest Feature]

The author discusses trends and cosiderations for the use of nuclear energy in the 1980s. He predicts taht the nuclear power systems which will be in use in the 1980s and beyond certainly will include the high-gain fast breeder reactor (FBR). With the successful application of the liquid metal FBR (LMFBR), fuel cycle costs of all the existing systems will become stabilized and predictable; without the LMFBR, future fuel cycle costs for the existing converter reactors will be uncertain at best. The development time required to bring a commercial LMFBR into being is appreciable. Schedule estimates vary from 12 to 20 years depending upon the approach and level of risk accepted. The present large-scale AEC program is committed to a long thorough component and fuel development program before undertaking the construction of a prototype LMFBR. This approach appears to be based upon the introduction of the commercial LMFBR in the mid-1980s. He is convinced that the development of the LMFBR will not truly be underway until there is a utility commitment to plant construction comparable to that undertaken by the utilities on light water recators (LWRs) in the late 1950s.