5 Commandments [technology laws and rules of thumb]

Author

Ross, Philip E.

Volume

40

Issue

12

fYear

2003

fDate

6/25/1905 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

30

Lastpage

35

Abstract

There are sublime, silly, real and true laws, and folksy rules of thumb laws that have come up from mathematical observations, pithy pronouncements, and even a few enduring self-fulfilling prophecies about technology. The article discusses how some laws have fared in time. These laws include: Moore´s Law - the number of transistors on a chip doubles annually; Rock´s Law - the cost of semiconductor tools doubles every four years; Machrone´s Law the PC you want to buy will always be $5000; Metcalfe´s Law - a network´s value grows proportionately to the number of its users squared; and Wirth´s Law - software is slowing faster than hardware is accelerating.

Keywords

computer networks; computer software; information technology; integrated circuit technology; microcomputers; semiconductor technology; Machrone´s Law; Metcalfe´s Law; Moore´s Law; Rock´s Law; Wirth´s Law; network value; number of users; personal computer cost; semiconductor tools cost; software; technology laws; Aerospace engineering; Aerospace testing; CMOS technology; Electric resistance; Electrical engineering; Integrated circuit technology; Moore´s Law; Solid state circuits; Thumb; Voltage;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Spectrum, IEEE

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9235

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/MSPEC.2003.1249976

Filename

1249976