Short term load forecasting using multiple correlation models

A model for hourly load (hourly^*energy consumption) forecasting is developed. The method is based on using the linear estimation theory to obtain four different prediction models for the load at a particular hour corresponding to the four correlation periods, namely an hour^*, a day, a week and a year. The four predicted values with their respective variances are combined optimally to obtain a composite forecast for the hour. The holiday forecasts are improved by selectively rejecting one or more of these four predicted values. Actual data from the Hydro-Quebec system load file for the period of September 28, 1969 to September 26, 1971, is used as data for identification of the model. The load forecasts for the period of September 27, 1971 to September 26, 1972 are compared with the loads actually realized during the same period.