Estimating System-Wide Impacts of Smart Grid Demonstrations

Quantifying the impact of new technologies on a single distribution feeder is a tractable analysis problem. But the analysis of a single distribution feeder does not provide insight into the complexities and variations of a system-wide deployment. The inability to extrapolate system-wide impacts hinders the deployment of many promising new technologies. This paper presents a three-stage method of extrapolating technological impacts, either simulated or from a field demonstration, from a limited number of distribution feeders to the entire system. The size of the system can vary from the service territory of a single utility, to a region, or to an entire country. The paper will include an example analysis using the United States Department of Energy funded Smart Grid Investment Grant projects, extrapolating their benefits to a national level, and an example of a regionalized deployment of Volt-VAR optimization for peak demand reduction. Both of the example analyses utilize the presented three-stage extrapolation method.