A Probabilistic Model of a Coal-Burning Power Plant

A coal burning power plant is considered. Its components are grouped into appropriate modules so that the whole unit is a series systems of 7 modules. Exponential distributions are used for life time and repair time of all components according to real data. A model is developed which generates: i) the reliability of components, modules, and the unit, and ii) the average amount of power generated by the unit at any given time and over a period of time. Result agrees with a simulation model and past data. The model can be used in planning, design. It can be adopted for production systems.