Human cognitive performance in antisubmarine warfare: situation assessment and data fusion

A cognitive simulation model of the antisubmarine warfare commander (ASWC) in a Naval Battle Group was developed, with particular emphasis on modeling his data fusion activities during situation assessment. These activities involve the estimation of enemy submarine tracks (position and velocity) and their likelihoods in a passive sonar convergence zone environment. The simulation is normative-descriptive in nature. A normative (optimal) mathematical model was first developed based on modern estimation and control theory. Experimental results with 20 experienced naval subjects on four scenarios, involving 12 contacts and three submarines each, indicated that the optimal or normative model always demonstrated superior performance to that of the human subjects. Known cognitive limitations and biases, drawn from the cognitive and behavioral sciences and/or directly observed in human subject performance, were then incorporated in the model