Determination of optimal total transfer capability using a probabilistic approach

^In an open-access environment, available transfer capability (ATC) is a very important index indicating the transfer capability remaining in a physical power transmission network for further commercial trading. Total transfer capability (TTC), as a key component for determining ATC, is not deterministic, due to the random nature of transmission failures. This paper introduces a framework for determination of probabilistic TTC. An optimal power flow (OPF) technique based on the sequential quadratic programming is implemented to evaluate TTCs for different contingency states in an interconnected power system. A model for determining the optimal TTC is proposed based on maximizing transmission revenue. Different penalty cost models for the no-delivered TTC have been investigated. The bisection search method is used to reduce the computing time of searching the optimal TTC. The numerical results for the IEEE-RTS system are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models and solution techniques.