Future trends in telecommunications transmission¿a personal view

After briefly tracing transmission system development to the present day, the paper goes on to consider the likely progression of both services and technology in the near and far future. To provide a clear focus for the discussion, a number of `end point¿ developments and targets are postulated as the ultimate objectives of the transmission engineer. The latest technology developments are then cited as being capable of providing the means to achieve these objectives, which would then lead to a continuing exponential growth in both traffic and services. It is concluded that future traffic and service demands will ultimately rely upon optical fibre systems as the major point-to-point carrier, with radio and satellite devoted to mobile, broadcast, rapid-response and `outback¿ applications.