Probabilistic three-phase load flow for unbalanced electrical distribution systems with wind farms

A probabilistic method is proposed to take into account the uncertainties of loads and wind production in electrical unbalanced distribution systems. The proposed method is based on Monte-Carlo simulation applied to the nonlinear three-phase load flow equations including wind farms, thereby taking into account all load and line unbalances that can characterise the distribution systems. The method allows the evaluation of phase-voltage and unbalance factor probability functions and in particular the maximum values and 95th percentiles, being the statistical measures of greatest interest in many international standards for power quality. Numerical applications are presented and discussed with reference to the three-phase unbalanced IEEE 34-bus test distribution system in presence of wind farms connected at different busbars.