Calculation method of failure probabilities of optical fiber

An accurate method for calculating the failure probabilities of optical fiber is proposed. The number of fractured fibers in a target group of fibers (here target group refers to as a manufactured length of cable) are used in addition to the data used in the conventional method. The proposed method accurately estimates the applied stress on the fiber, which is necessary to calculate the failure probability, even though it is not directly measured. Such an estimation is essential because it is difficult to directly measure the stress applied to a fiber in the field. Moreover, the new method accurately estimates the flaw growth parameters of the fiber and the distribution of flaw sizes on the fiber surface, both of which are needed to calculate the failure probability