Forecasting fuel requirements uncertainty

The authors describe the development of the Fuelburn model for generating reliable probabilistic forecasts. This model incorporates the many related uncertainties affecting fuel requirements, captures the characteristics of large and complex utility systems, and produces output in a form directly useful for supporting fuel and system decisions. A utility application of the Fuelburn model is discussed. It is concluded that Fuelburn´s capabilities can help utilities design operating strategies that deal flexibly with the considerable risks in the utility environment.<>