Abstract :
The peace and uncertainty resolution process is modeled as the maximization of an overall utility function including model uncertainty parameters and decision variables. Disagreements about the uncertainty values are resolved through an arbitration process that is an extension of final-offer arbitration. The model encompasses government, which is a strong arbitrator, and international relations, where the arbitrator is relatively weak. The process is suggested as a substitute for armed strength and possible war, instead allowing nations to compete intensively toward their goals through systems analysis. While useful in competitive situations, the uncertainty resolution process is structured to promote cooperative problem solving.
