Abstract :
Conventional wisdom maintains that, although arbitration may sometimes be useful to resolve minor disputes between nations, nations will not agree to arbitration when their vital interests are involved. Such a view is unreasonable; arbitration may be the best approach when nations, especially the major powers, cannot resolve crucial disputes through negotiations. Prospects for arbitration may be enhanced by the model proposed herein, maximizing a social welfare function combining the utilities of all the parties to a dispute, which includes uncertain, disputed parameters. On the other hand conventional game-theory modeling tends to emphasize threats rather than the peaceful resolution of disputes.