The anatomy of foresight traps [foresight management]

No companies ever escape foresight traps. Foresight traps are inevitable because the ingredients for them are everywhere. Every trap has a technical or commercial surprise as part of the explanation. A new environment raises unfamiliar issues with established firms. Managing uncertainty often generates conflicts within a firm. Foresight traps can arise when managers let conflict interfere with their assessment of a competitive situation. An overconfident executive can make matters worse. Good firms do their best to save confident executives from their worst instincts. These firms collect information from a variety of sources, think hard about what their rivals perceive, and spend resources guarding against outcomes that might or might not arise.