نقد مطالعات رشد و تحليل تكانه پذيري رشد اقتصادي ايران در چهارچوب اقتصاد مقاومتي

A criticise on growth studies and analysis on shock resistance of Iran’s growth rate in the context of resistance economy

در اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﭼﻮن اﻳﺮان ﻛﻪ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﺎﻻﻳﻲ در رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي دارد، ﺗﻜﺎﻧﻪ ﭘﺬﻳﺮي و در ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاري رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ دارد. ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﺗﻜﺎﻧـﻪ ﭘﺬﻳﺮي رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻳﺮان در دوره 1356 ﺗﺎ 1395 ﺑﺎ روﻳﻜﺮد «ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻛﻴﻔﻲ-ﺑﺨﺸﻲ» در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاري ﺑﺨﺸﻲ رﺷﺪ، ﻫﺪف اﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ داﻣﻨـﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮ رﺷـﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در دوره ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در اﻳﺮان 46 واﺣﺪ درﺻﺪ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ، ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻳﻦ داﻣﻨﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ رﺷﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺑﺎ 195/4 واﺣﺪ درﺻﺪ ﺑﺮﻣﻲ ﮔﺮدد. از ﻃﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي رﺷﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻲ ﮔﺮدد ﻛﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻜﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻘﺪاري ﭼﻮن وﺿﻊ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ (ﻣﺤﺪودﻳﺖ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ﻫﺎ) ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺳﺎل 1359 و ﺳﺎل 1391 دو ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ روﺷﻦ ﺑـﺮاي اﻳـﻦ اﻣﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﻛﻤﺎ اﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻟﻐﻮ و ﻳﺎ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻖ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻫﺎ در ﺳﺎل 1361 و ﺳﺎل 1395 ﺟﻬﺶ ﻫﺎي رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻳﺮان را در ﭘﻲ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ اﻳﻦ ﺟﻬﺶ ﻫﺎ ﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺰﻟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔـﺮﻓﺘﻦ در ﻳـﻚ ﻣﺴـﻴﺮ رﺷﺪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت و ﭘﺎﻳﺪار، ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﻳﻚ اﺻﻼح ﻛﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت در رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ واﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ و ﺗﻜﺎﻧﻪ ﭘﺬﻳﺮي ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻔﺖ از ﺧﺎرج ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ دﻻﻳﻠﻲ ﭼﻮن اﻧﺤﺼﺎر دوﻟﺘﻲ در ﻃﺮف ﻋﺮﺿﻪ، اﻧﺤﺼﺎر در ﻃﺮف ﺧﺮﻳﺪ و ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﻴﺮي ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﭼﻮن آﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ از ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺻﺎدرات ﻧﻔﺖ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي را ﻧﺎﭘﺎﻳﺪار ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.

As oil sector has a great share in Iran’s economic growth rate, the concept of economic growth shock resistance and stability earns high importance. The aim of this paper is to identify the shock resistance of Iran’s economic growth during 1978 to 2016 with the approach of “quality-sectoral analysis” in the framework of growth sectoral accounting. Results show that economic growth rate during this period has varied about 46 percent in which oil sector growth rate has a variation of 195.4 percent. It is also verified that largest growth shocks happened in years of oil sector production quantity shocks due to an exogenous reason like oil purchase sanctions. Two years of 1981 and 2012 are eminent in this issue. On the other hand, on the event of sanctions lift or suspension in 1983 and 2016 growth rate has experienced a jump which can’t be considered as standing in the line of long run and stable growth rate but a short run come back of the rate. Results of the paper show that the shock irresistancy of oil sector due to its high dependency to foreign countries as a result of governmental supply monopoly, demand monopoly and U.S. sanctions on Iran oil exports has made the economic growth unstable.