ارزيابي ريسك محيط ‌زيستي سد رودبار لرستان در مرحله ساختماني به ‌روش تلفيقي تصميم‌ گيري چند شاخصه و مدل RAM- D

Environmental Risk Assessment of Roodbar Dam of Lorestan in Construction Phase Using an Integrated Method of Multi Attribute Decision Making and RAM-D Model

ﻫﺪف از اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ رﯾﺴﮏ ﺳﺪ رودﺑﺎر ﻟﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﻪ روش ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻘﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﭼﻨﺪﺷﺎﺧﺼﻪ و ﻣﺪل RAM-D اﺳﺖ. ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺘﯽ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﺷﺪ و در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ در اﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﺣﻮزه ﺳﺪ و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ و در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺗﻌﺪاد 33 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ رﯾﺴﮏ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ روش TOPSIS ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﻨﺪي ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ و ﺳﻪ رﯾﺴﮏ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ و ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي، دﻓﻊ ﺿﺎﯾﻌﺎت و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﺮ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ اﻣﺘﯿﺎزﻫﺎي 0/739، 0/667، 0/66 ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎ در اﯾﻦ روش ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪﻧﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻪ روش AHP ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﻨﺪي رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎ در 6 ﮔﺮوه رﯾﺴﮏ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺷﺪت و اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Expert Choice ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﺎوت ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از دو روش TOPSIS و AHP ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ روش ﻫﺎي ادﻏﺎم، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻖ ﺷﺪه و در آﺧﺮ ﺗﻌﺪاد 10 رﯾﺴﮏ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺪ رودﺑﺎر ﻟﺮﺳﺘﺎن در ﻓﺎز ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ روش RAM-D اﯾﻦ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﺮ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﺮ آﺑﺰﯾﺎن ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﺳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ اﻣﺘﯿﺎزﻫﺎي 9، 6/75، 4/5 از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎي ﺳﺪ رودﺑﺎر ﻟﺮﺳﺘﺎن در ﻓﺎز ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎ در اﺛﺮ از ﺑﯿﻦ ﺑﺮدن ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺑﻠﻮط ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻋﻤﺪه ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و اﺛﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻓﺎز ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺳﺪ ﺑﺮ روي رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ رودﺑﺎر ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد ﻣﯽ آﯾﻨﺪ. ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﻗﺪام اﺻﻼﺣﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﯽ، ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ اراﺿﯽ در ﺣﻮﺿﻪ آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﺳﺪ اﺳﺖ.

The current study aims at assessing the risks of Roodbar Dam using Multi Attribute Decision Making and RAM-D Model. First, a list of environmental risks was provided and placed at disposal of experts who are aware in the fields of dam and environment. Consequently, 33 risk factors were identified. The results of the questionnaire were analyzed and prioritized using TOPSIS Method. Based on the noted method, three risks including impact on landscape and tourism, waste disposal and impact on habitats which obtained the scores equal to 0.739, 0.667 and 0.66 respectively were considered the most important risks. Afterwards, by means of AHP Method and Expert choice Software, the risks were assessed and analyzed in the form of 6 risk groups based on the intensity and probability of occurrence. At the next step, considering the varied results between the methods; TOPSIS and AHP, the results were unified using the integrated methods. Finally, 10 risks were determined for Roodbar Dam in construction phase. Then, by means of RAM-D the risks were assessed. Based on the results of the method, land use change, impact on habitats and influence on aquatics with the scores of 9, 6.75 and 4.5 were determined the most signification risks of Roodbar Dam in construction phase. The risks are consequences of the destruction of the forest cover of oak species, the change of the main land use in the area and the activities of the construction phase of dam on Roodbar River. At the end, to mitigate the obtained risks, managerial and corrective measures were recommended.