امكان سنجي تهيه نقشه پيش بيني احتمال حضور برخي از گونه هاي مهم مرتعي در مراتع كوهستاني زاگرس

Feasibility Study of Preparing Prediction Map of the Possibility of Presence of Some Important Range Species in Zagros Rangeland

ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ ﺑﺎ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ و ارزﺷﻤﻨﺪ در داﻧﺶ ﺑﻮﻣﯽ و رﺳﻤﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻮارد ﻣﻬﻢ در اﺻﻼح و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﻊ ﻣﻄﺮح اﺳﺖ؛ ﭼﺮا ﮐﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﺻﻠﯽ در ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ ﯾﺎ ﻋﺪم ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ اﯾﻨﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت، اﻧﻄﺒﺎق آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓ ﻣﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺎﮐﻨﺎن آن ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻟﺬا در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻣﮑﺎن ﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺣﻀﻮر ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﻌﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻢ از دﯾﺪ اﻓﺮاد ﻣﺤﻠﯽ و ﻫﻢ ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﻮده و واﺟﺪ ارزش ﻫﺎي ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮره اﻧﺪ، اﻗﺪام ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﮐﻪ در ﻣﺮﺗﻊ دﯾﻠﮕﺎن ﮐﻪ از ﻣﺮاﺗﻊ ﯾﯿﻼﻗﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﻬﮕﯿﻠﻮﯾﻪ و ﺑﻮﯾﺮاﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ، ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ، ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن ﻣﺤﻠﯽ و ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن اداره ﻫﺎ و ﻣﺮاﮐﺰ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و اﻣﻮر ﻋﺸﺎﯾﺮ ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺖ، ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در اداﻣﻪ از روش رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﻟﺠﺴﺘﯿﮏ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪف ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ و ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در ﻣﺮﺗﻊ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺟﻤﻊ آوري ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﯾﺠﺎد رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و ﺣﻀﻮر و ﻋﺪم ﺣﻀﻮر ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ روش ﻣﺬﮐﻮر و اﻋﻤﺎل اﯾﻦ رواﺑﻂ در ﻻﯾﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ، ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ روﯾﺸﮕﺎه ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﻮن ﺳﻔﯿﺪ، ﺟﺎﺷﯿﺮ و ﭼﻮﯾﻞ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ArcGis ﻧﺴﺨﻪ 9/3 ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ روﯾﺸﮕﺎه از ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﮐﺎﭘﺎ (κ) اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ آﻧﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﮔﺮادﯾﺎن ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ روش رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﻟﺠﺴﺘﯿﮏ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از روش ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ در ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮔﻮﯾﺎي آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در ﺷﮑﻞ ﮔﯿﺮي آﺷﯿﺎن اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺣﻀﻮر ﯾﺎ ﻋﺪم ﺣﻀﻮر ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ ﮔﻮن ﺳﻔﯿﺪ، ﺟﺎﺷﯿﺮ و ﭼﻮﯾﻞ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎك و ارﺗﻔﺎع از ﺳﻄﺢ درﯾﺎ ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻧﻘﺶ دارﻧﺪ.

Habitat suitability prediction of important plant species in formal and indigenous Knowledge is known as one of the considerable factors in rangelands reform and development, since one of the main points of success or failure of these activities is adaptation with needs and culture of the area residents. This survey is about feasibility study of preparing prediction map of the possibility of presence of some range species being important for natives, local experts and having Multifunctional value. This study was conducted in Dilegan rangeland in Kohgiluye and Boirahmad province. Important species were identified based on interviews with local experts, scientific centers associated with natural resources and tribal affairs. Then logistic regression model was used for habitat prediction map of the selected species and regarding the purpose of study, vegetation data and environmental factors were collected in the rangeland. By creating relationships between environmental variables and the presence or absence of species and applying these relationships in GIS, habitat prediction map of Astragalus gossypinus Fischer, Prangos ferulacea (Schlecht) Boiss. and Ferulago angulata (L.) lindi was created in the ArcGis version 3.9. Kappa (κ) was used to evaluate the prediction habitat maps. Results showed that gradiant analaysis of environmental variables by logistic regression can be used as one of the appropriate methods for preparing habitat suitability prediction map of plants. In this method, by determining the presence or absence of plant species, its relationship with environmental factors is identified, and in other areas, in case of knowing environmental factors, predict the possibility of presence of plant species.