تحليل رابطه سياست خارجي وتوسعه اقتصادي: مقايسه دولت‌هاي خاتمي، احمدي نژاد و روحاني(1376-1396)

Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Policy and Economic Development:Comparison of Khatami, Ahmadinejad and Rouhani Governments (1376-1396)

اين مقاله تلاش دارد تا تأثير جهت گيري سياست خارجي را بر توسعه اقتصادي مورد بررسي قرار دهد. براين اساس سئوالي كه مطرح مي‌شود اين است كه نفس جهت‌گيري هر گفتمان در سياست خارجي به چه صورت بر توسعه اقتصادي ايران تأثيرگذاشته است؟ فرضيه اصلي اين پژوهش آن است كه شاخصه‌هاي اقتصاد ايران همچون سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي، رشد توليد ناخالص داخلي و صادرات و واردات غيرنفتي در دولت‌هاي خاتمي، احمدي نژاد و روحاني تحت تأثير نوع جهت گيري سياست خارجي آنها بوده است. نتايج تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد صرف نظر از عناصر ثابت در سياست خارجي ايران، ساير اقدامات سياست خارجي ايران را مي‌توان در چارچوب گفتمان‌هاي حاكم بر هر دولت ارزيابي كرد. هريك از اين گفتمان‌ها؛ در چارچوب عناصر ثابت و ساختاري سياست خارجي ايران، شيوه خاص خود براي تعامل با دنيا را برگزيدند كه تأثيرات خاص خود را بر روند توسعه اقتصادي ايران داشته است. بدين ترتيب كه شاخصه‌هاي مذكور در دوره خاتمي روند مثبت و در دوره احمدي نژاد روندي منفي و در دوره روحاني تحت تأثير اجرايي نشدن برجام توسط غرب روندي نوساني را نشان مي‌دهد.

This paper seeks to explain how the oil revenues affected the state-building process during the Pahlavi era?Oil as the most important strategic commodity has never been isolated from the history of the world, but rather could shape it from the very beginning, especially in the second half of the twentieth century. The role of oil in various economic, political, and social aspects is considered common knowledge, the most influential of which is probably the state-building process. One of the most extensive experiences of the state-building in Iran was formed during 1300-1320, namely, the period of the Pahlavi regime, the experience that the past rulers failed to succeed in spite of their attempts to achieve it. When Reza Shah came into power, the oil price rose significantly, oil revenues along with other resources facilitated and accelerated the state-building process in four areas of the establishment of discipline, development of bureaucracy, institutionalization, and developmentalism for the poor country of Iran. However, Reza Shah failed to create the necessary logical balance between various areas of the state building due to his autarchy. The present research which is based on both the political economy and political sociology seeks to explain.