چكيده لاتين :
So far, the changes have been done in human resources planning practices (Van Buren et al, 2011: 211). In the process of strategic planning, fast performance is required. But the complexity and extreme environmental uncertainty and the need to solve them, is equal to use some methods in which the weaknesses of strategic planning as much as possible would cover (Chatfields, 2005: 19; Porter, 2004: 288; Frechtling, 2001: 21). In conditions of extreme uncertainty, using the methods and models of strategic planning is fraught with many problems (Glenn & Gordon, 2003: 2). Futures studies should be one of our key defenses against the challenges of uncertainty and it should make it possible to predict dangerous trends and recognize desirable futures and respond to it properly (Hejazi, 2011:84).
Case of the study
The research was conducted amongst the internal and external stakeholders of Esfahan Technical and Vocational Training Organization. The study population included seventeen participants of the organization stakeholders who were identified during the futures studies workshop in the preparation step of our model.
Materials and Methods
In this study, in order to answer the research questions, the fuzzy DEMATEL technique and customized hybrid Roland Berger - HHL Leipzig approach have been used. In this approach, the modified Framing checklist, 360° stakeholder feedback, the two-step questionnaire of impact/uncertainty identification, Impact/Uncertainty Grid, scenario matrix, Fuzzy DEMATEL technique and Influence Diagram were used. In this study, futuristic preparation step includes the steps of determining the purpose, methods, participants, stakeholders, resource requirements, time horizon, level of analysis and communication. Also the meaning-making future step includes enviroment review, analysis, interpretation and prospection. The study population included seventeen participants of the vocational Isfahan stakeholders who were identified during the futures studies workshop in the preparation step of our model. According to the features that each participant should have, these members were selected purposefully and judgmentally. The study aims to design Influence Diagram of strategic human resource planning considering futures studies approach in Esfahan Technical and Vocational Training Organization.
Main question
Q1: how is the Influence Diagram of strategic human resource planning considering futures studies approach in Esfahan Technical and Vocational Training Organization?
Secondary questions:
Q1a: What are the weak signals and blind spots related to influence factors and uncertainties of the model of strategic human resource planning considering futures studies approach?
Q1b: How much is the importance level of influnce diagram factors?
in Esfahan Technical and Vocational Training Organization by using of customized hybrid Roland Berger - HHL Leipzig approach, after preparation of Framing checklist and 360° stakeholder feedback and identification of influence factors and uncertainties and weak signals and blind spots, we used the Impact/Uncertainty grid to identify the trends, less important factors and critical uncertainties. Then, by using of the critical uncertainties, two general classifications to identify key uncertainties have created and through positive and negative development of them on the matrix axes and during a brain storming session, we have developed four differenet scenarios titled “organization fortress”, “organization under siege”, “safe environment” and “organization decline”. Finally, while making use of trends and uncertainties and by using of fuzzy DEMATEL technique, causal relations chain and strategic leverage that exists behind every scenario clarified. Eventually by using the influence diagram, some developments are shown that if they happen untill the year 1400 (2021), it can develop the key uncertainties of human resource planning of Esfahan Technical and Vocational Training Organization in positive or negative direction.
Discussion and Conclusion
The employment rate, increasing organization budget, policies to attract competitive human resources, the realization of the 1404 Development Plan particularly in the field of human resources, different rules of insurance and pension, equal employment opportunity programs, job promotion programs were identified as influence factors. Blind spots related to influence factors include Barjam change (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), increasing organization budget, employment and unemployment rates, stable political situation and etc. Blind spots related to unsectainty include Brjam change (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), removing the sanctions, professional trainings, jobs specialization and etc. Absence of weak signals shows that all participants have a common understanding of influencing factors and uncertainties. Then, by using of impact/uncertainty grid, it became clear that the development of small businesses, governmental strict rules on human resource planning, different insurance and pension laws are the less important factors that even can be negleted during the scenarios development. Different trends were recognized in which employment and unemployment, professional trainings, equal employment opportunity programs, global developments have high influence potential and unsertainty. Five critical uncertainties such as budget increasing, Brjam change (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the realization of the 1404 development plan, new approaches of public administration and new combinations of stackholders groups that have the highest impact and uncertainty were identified. By putting these factors in two different groups in titled organization related laws and economical look of organization, four dimentions of scenario matrix were developed and finally four scenarios were developed and by using of influence diagram, the details of the relations and their importance level were recognized. The results of the fuzzy DEMATEL technique clarified that some factors affect the others and also their level of importance. Realization or failure to achieve the goals of the 1404 document has highest rank. Realization of it could lead to increased funding and support the organizations to increase the recruitment and use of new approaches of public administration that has been mentioned in Iran 1404 document. Changes in budget especially budget increasing, has second position because it can directly provide the prerequisites and requirements on the one hand, and the implementation process of strategic planning of human resources considering the futures studies concepts. The organization should try to influence the governors through lobbying and working closely with them to increase the organization's budget. New approaches in public administration, such as outsourcing, downsizing, privatization, merger, partnership or joint management are in next places in terms of importance. Respectively the next places in terms of importance belong to political support for increasing employment, new combination of internal and external stakeholders, Brjam change (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), new directions of organizational strategies, professional training, changes in inflation, employment and unemployment rates, changing in number and scope of activities of institutions, management changing especially senior managers, the diverse organization's objectives.
